This tracker aggregates reporting from named sources including CENTCOM, IDF, IRGC, IRNA, Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, CNN, NPR, CNBC, The Washington Post, CBS News, The Times of Israel, and Wikipedia's live article. All claims are attributed to their source. Where figures conflict between sources, both are noted.
Verification status is applied to key claims throughout:
Timeline timestamps are in US Eastern Time (ET) and are approximate (marked with ~) unless a precise time is known from primary sources. Casualty figures from conflict zones are inherently uncertain and frequently revised. Iranian Red Crescent figures are relayed via international media and cannot be independently verified from outside Iran. IRGC claims about US targets are treated as unverified unless confirmed by CENTCOM. Israeli casualty figures are sourced from MDA (Magen David Adom). The Escalation Index is an editorial assessment — its methodology and weighting are shown transparently so readers can evaluate individual factors.
This tracker does not have reporters on the ground. It is an aggregation and analysis dashboard, not primary reporting.
Day 2 — Sunday evening. US futures markets opened at 6 PM ET to immediate selling. Dow futures fell 517 points (−1%). Crude oil rose 8%. Gold rose 2%. The session marks the sharpest Sunday open since early 2020. CENTCOM denied Iran's claim of striking the USS Abraham Lincoln, calling it false — the carrier continues operations. Trump is returning to Washington. Earlier today, UK PM Starmer authorized the US to use British bases for strikes on Iranian missile sites, making the UK the first new country actively joining the campaign. An Iranian missile hit Jerusalem Sunday evening, wounding three; shrapnel fell in seven locations across central Israel. Netanyahu said Israeli strikes would intensify. Hezbollah's Naim Qassem pledged to "confront the aggression" but the group has not fired. Sen. Warner, the top Democrat on Intelligence, said he saw "no intelligence" supporting the administration's preemptive strike rationale. Kuwait suspended its stock exchange. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, analysts warn oil could reach $120+.
Israel and Iran exchanged direct strikes in April and October 2024. In mid-2025, they fought a 12-day war during which the US also struck Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran said it stopped enriching but blocked inspectors. Satellite imagery showed rebuilding. US intelligence assessed that Iran developed the capability to produce its own high-quality centrifuges and had stockpiled more missiles than before the 2025 war.
In late December 2025, Iran experienced its largest protests since 1979, driven by economic collapse and a rapidly declining rial. Security forces killed thousands (estimates range from 3,117 to 32,000). Trump said the US was "locked and loaded."
In the weeks before February 28, the US assembled its largest Middle East military presence since Iraq 2003 while simultaneously pursuing Oman-mediated nuclear talks. Iran agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium. Diplomats described "significant progress," and a Geneva round was scheduled. US and Israeli intelligence had spent months tracking Khamenei's movements — they struck when senior officials gathered. Thirty munitions were dropped on his compound. The strikes were launched on a Friday, the day before Purim.
Iran's state TV satellite feed was hacked to broadcast Trump and Netanyahu speeches directly to Iranian citizens. Israel compromised a popular prayer app to urge IRGC members to surrender — the same tactic used in Gaza. Videos of Iranians celebrating Khamenei's death circulated despite internet blackouts. Security forces fired on celebrants in multiple cities.
Russia and China have condemned the strikes but neither is positioned to intervene militarily. Russia is constrained by Ukraine; China purchases 80% of Iran's oil but has signaled it will not risk its US relationship. The Council on Foreign Relations assessed that killing the supreme leader does not constitute regime change — the IRGC is the institutional power. Iran formed a three-member leadership council (Pezeshkian, Mohseni-Ejei, Arafi) within hours. Ahmad Vahidi is reported as the likely new IRGC commander. The regime is reconstituting faster than many analysts expected.
At 6 PM Sunday, US futures markets opened to significant selling. Dow futures fell 517 points. Crude oil rose 8%. Gold rose 2%. Kuwait suspended its stock exchange. Analyst forecasts for oil range from $80 (contained scenario, Atlantic Council) to $120+ (prolonged Hormuz closure, UBS/JPM). CENTCOM denied Iran's claim of striking the USS Abraham Lincoln. Trump returned to Washington. OPEC+ raised output by 220K bpd — a small fraction of the 15M bbl/day blocked at the Strait. In Pakistan, 22 people died in clashes at the US consulate in Karachi. Congress returns Monday to debate war powers. The UK has joined the campaign. Hezbollah has pledged action but not fired. The regime is reconstituting. The markets are repricing. Operations continue.